Tom Skilling

Your positions

Live chart

What could move the temperature

What drives Tom's Bitcoin odds

Radar

NWS loop, refreshed every 2 minutes. Watch for rain heading toward the airport. Open full radar

Hour-by-hour forecast

Every open hour

Kalshi lists times in Eastern

How the Bitcoin odds work

What Kalshi settles on. Each hourly Bitcoin market settles on CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), averaged over the 60 seconds before the hour. "$77,000 or above" means that average is $77,000.00 or more.

The price Tom watches. The BRTI itself isn't free, so Tom reads the live order-book midpoint at four of the exchanges BRTI is built from (Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp, Gemini) every 1.5 seconds and takes the middle value. After each hour he compares his own 60-second average with Kalshi's settled number and learns the small gap.

The odds. No crystal ball: Tom has no view on whether Bitcoin goes up or down. His odds come from how far each strike is from the price, how much time is left, and how Bitcoin has really moved over that much time in the past week (including the rare big jumps), scaled up or down by how jumpy it has been in the last few hours. In the final minute, the part of the 60-second average that's already in is locked in.

Be realistic. Bitcoin markets on Kalshi are busy and usually fairly priced, and faster traders see the real index. Expect Tom to find few real edges here. The practice ledger in Results is the honest test. Not financial advice.

How the estimates work

Estimate. Blends the HRRR, NBM, ECMWF and GFS forecast models, then shifts toward the latest reading. Kalshi settles on the average of several airports (its “Weather Index”), and the bot reads that index straight from Kalshi every 10 seconds. If Kalshi's feed is down, it rebuilds the average from airport reports. That shift matters most in the last hour or two. The range widens with time, model disagreement and rain risk. After enough settled hours, it corrects itself using its past misses.

Odds meter on a position: the dot is the chance your side wins right now, the black line is what was paid, and the small amber marker is the market's odds. Green when the chance is above the price paid, red when below.

Odds is the forecast's chance that side wins. Market % is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask. Edge is expected profit per contract after Kalshi's fee.

Kalshi settles on a decimal reading (like 84.20°), so "84° or above" means 84.00 or higher. Check each market's rules on Kalshi before trading. This is a second opinion, not financial advice.

Past positions

Tom's practice ledger

If you had followed Tom's calls

Tom's 15-minute calls

15-minute calls, one by one

15-minute practice ledger

Scalper (practice) ledger

Hour by hour

Is the percentage honest?

Forecast accuracy and data

How Tom trades

Practice only. Nothing is bought on your account. Tom trades the market that settles at the next top of the hour, 10 contracts at a time, and wait for an edge to hold 20 seconds before buying. Every hour gets a call: if Tom hasn't bought by 15 minutes before the reading, he buys his lean anyway. If the forecast turns against a position and the other side becomes the likely winner, he sells and flips to it.

Tom (steady) only buys a side he gives 70% or better with at least 4¢ of edge, picking the best return per dollar.

Every 2 seconds Tom compares the bid (after fees) to what the forecast thinks the contract is worth, and sells if the market pays more. Otherwise it holds to Kalshi's result. Fills assume the posted price.