Tom Skilling
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Tom's ledger, every city
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Scalper · Bet the swingQuick in-and-out practice trades on Bitcoin spikes. Separate from Tom's call.
Your positions
Live chart
What could move the temperature
What drives Tom's Bitcoin odds
Radar
NWS loop, refreshed every 2 minutes. Watch for rain heading toward the airport. Open full radar
Hour-by-hour forecast
Every open hour
Kalshi lists times in EasternHow the Bitcoin odds work
What Kalshi settles on. Each 15-minute Bitcoin market asks: is CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), averaged over the last 60 seconds, at or above where it started the window? The start price is the previous window's settled value.
The price Tom watches. The BRTI itself isn't free, so Tom reads the live order-book midpoint at four of the exchanges BRTI is built from (Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp, Gemini) every second and takes the middle value, and learns the small gap to Kalshi's settled number.
The odds. No crystal ball: Tom has no view on whether Bitcoin goes up or down. His odds come from how far the price is from the start, how much time is left, and how Bitcoin has really moved over that much time in the past week. In the final minute, the part of the 60-second average that's already in is locked in.
Be realistic. These markets are busy and usually fairly priced. The practice ledgers in Results are the honest test. Not financial advice.
How the estimates work
Estimate. Blends the HRRR, NBM, ECMWF and GFS forecast models, then shifts toward the latest reading. Kalshi settles on the average of several airports (its “Weather Index”), and the bot reads that index straight from Kalshi every 10 seconds. If Kalshi's feed is down, it rebuilds the average from airport reports. That shift matters most in the last hour or two. The range widens with time, model disagreement and rain risk. After enough settled hours, it corrects itself using its past misses.
Odds meter on a position: the dot is the chance your side wins right now, the black line is what was paid, and the small amber marker is the market's odds. Green when the chance is above the price paid, red when below.
Odds is the forecast's chance that side wins. Market % is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask. Edge is expected profit per contract after Kalshi's fee.
Kalshi settles on a decimal reading (like 84.20°), so "84° or above" means 84.00 or higher. Check each market's rules on Kalshi before trading. This is a second opinion, not financial advice.
Past positions
Tom's practice ledger
Tom's 15-minute buys
15-minute buys, one by one
15-minute practice ledger
Scalper (practice) ledger
Hour by hour
Is the percentage honest?
Forecast accuracy and data
How Tom trades
Practice only. Nothing is bought on your account. Tom trades the market that settles at the next top of the hour and waits for an edge to hold 20 seconds before buying.
He buys a side he gives 70% or better with at least 4¢ of edge after fees. He sits out when Kalshi's price is 20+ points below his chance: that big a disagreement usually means Kalshi knows something. Many hours he buys nothing; his lean is just his lean.
He picks his own size: more contracts when the edge is bigger (3 to 25, sized as if he had a $100 bankroll). He holds every buy to Kalshi's result, no selling or flipping. Fills assume the posted price.